# Some Simple Economics of AGI By Christian Catalini, Xiang Hui, Jane Wu · 2026 Status: working paper ## Abstract A unified economic theory of the AGI transition. As the cost to automate falls faster than the cost to verify, a widening Measurability Gap separates what agents can execute from what humans can afford to verify — making verification, not intelligence, the binding constraint on growth. The framework partitions work into four regimes, formalizes measurability-biased technical change, and shows how unverified deployment drifts toward a Hollow Economy of counterfeit utility unless observability, accelerated mastery, and graceful degradation expand society's verification bandwidth. ## Links - [Read on arXiv](https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.20946) - [Paper page on catalini.com](https://catalini.com/research/some-simple-economics-of-agi/) - [PDF](https://catalini.com/s/some-simple-economics-of-agi.pdf)